Despite Liberal MP Andrew Hastie holding an 11 percent margin, Canning is a "seat where people are prepared to change their minds".
Those are the words of Curtin University executive director of public policy John Phillimore in the lead up to the federal election expected to be held in May.
The seat of Canning was named after Alfred Canning who surveyed routes for the rabbit-proof fence from Starvation Harbour to Cape Keraudren and stock routes to bring cattle from the Kimberley to feed workers in the Goldfields.
The landscape of the seat has changed over time, originally being a rural seat, then moving towards southern metropolitan areas and now taking in Mandurah.
Professor Phillomore said Canning now included some of the foothills of Perth such as Byford, some of the metro suburbs such as Armadale and went as far south as Preston Beach.
"Traditionally a mortgage belt area, where house prices and petrol prices are an issue," he said.
Labor had a stronghold in the seat with George Gear from 1984 to 1996 when it switched to Liberal politician Ricky Johnston.
Since then the seat has changed parties until Liberal Don Randall won it in 2004.
Prof Phillimore said Canning was on the national stage in 2015 when Mr Randall's sudden death forced a by-election.
He said then Prime Minister Tony Abbott's popularity was low and there was fear the Liberals would lose the seat of Canning and it helped spark the leadership spill which saw Malcolm Turnbull take the top spot.
"Once Hastie won in 2015 he has 'sured' up the seats and did well in the 2016 and 2019 elections," he said.
"Hastie has a good buffer, he is well known which should send him over the line, but with a reduced margin."
Prof Phillimore said Labor was taking the seat of Canning seriously with a "quality" candidate in Amanda Hunt.
He said it showed that Labor was encouraged by what happened in the state election in the area.
"The state election was a unique circumstance so it is hard to draw a link with that," he said.
"In 2019 there was a swing towards Liberals in the federal election so you just don't know."
2022 Canning candidates:
- Andrew Hastie (Liberal)
- Amanda Hunt (Labor)
- Jodie Moffat (Greens)
- James Waldeck (United Aus Party)
Jemillah Dawson
I started as a journalist in 2011 and now manage mastheads in the South West of WA. My passion is politics and sport. I believe we are the voice for the community but also we inform the community of what they need to know. Email jemillah.dawson@austcommunitymedia.com.au
I started as a journalist in 2011 and now manage mastheads in the South West of WA. My passion is politics and sport. I believe we are the voice for the community but also we inform the community of what they need to know. Email jemillah.dawson@austcommunitymedia.com.au
