WHILE our politicians have their feet up somewhere, enjoying time off with their families (possibly on a taxpayer funded holiday), here’s Mandurah Mail’s rundown of the year ahead in politics.
National scene
2015 will be hard to beat for a year packed with political punches, but 2016 will nonetheless have its fair share of thrills and spills.
Well, hopefully not another spill; Australians have surely had enough of Prime Ministers removed by anyone other than the people at an election.
And an election will be due this year for Malcolm Turnbull, who became PM after rolling Tony Abbott in the last week of the Canning byelection.
While the opposition is talking up the prospects of an early polling date in the first half of the year, the smart money is on Turnbull going full-term.
This would put the Federal election around September or October, but it is complicated by the Olympics in August and AFL finals in September.
With Bill Shorten’s popularity at record lows, even when compared to extremely unpopular political leaders such as Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, a disaster would have to befall Turnbull for him to lose.
Sportsbet is currently paying $6 on a Labor win and $1.10 on Turnbull’s return to the Lodge.
More locally, the Federal electorate of Canning has been redistributed by the electoral commission to remove Armadale and Kelmscott; the seat is now centred around Mandurah.
This will leave Andrew Hastie with an even safer seat and a good chance of extending his margin, especially given Labor hasn’t yet found a candidate (Matt Keogh is running in the new seat of Burt, which is to Canning’s north east).
Brand MP Gary Gray will also be looking to consolidate his seat after seeing off a half-baked preselection challenge from 28-year-old electrician Adam Woodage.
State affairs
On the State scene, an election is not scheduled until March 2017, but nonetheless the region's local members will be gearing up their campaigns. All except for Dawesville MP Kim Hames, who will be retiring; the Liberal party will be hunting for a replacement candidate in 2016.
David Templeman will be eyeing his fifth win in the electorate of Mandurah.
If he wins, he will have served 20 years at the end of that term.
There are also expectations popular Murray-Wellington MP Murray Cowper will continue speaking out against his own Liberal government when he feels they step out of line, especially on the planned TAB privatisation which would impact the racing industry in his electorate.
Local politics
It will be mid-cycle for local governments, with an election not due until October 2017, so expect a slow year on the local political front.
Although a City of Mandurah poll is not due until 2017, Mayor Marina Vergone will then be up for re-election.
This year, new Murray Shire president Maree Reid will be looking to put runs on the board.
Out-on-a-limb predictions
- Malcolm Turnbull will win the next election, which will most likely be held in October.
- Bill Shorten will most likely be the leader of the opposition at the election; Labor rules make it difficult for him to be removed.
- Tony Abbott will again run for his seat of Warringah on Sydney’s north shore and stay, but stay on the backbench.
- Andrew Hastie will chalk up a convincing win in Canning, and extend his margin.
