COVID-19 modellers have queried Jacinda Ardern's move to lessen Auckland's lockdown, describing it as a roll of the dice for New Zealand's elimination strategy.
On Tuesday, Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield reported 14 new cases in the community, including four in Whakatiwai.
Dr Bloomfield said he expected case numbers would "rumble along a bit" and then "we're expecting them to decline".
From Wednesday, 1.7 million residents in the Auckland region will shift to a level three lockdown after five weeks in the tough level four environment.
Level three allows for more businesses - including construction and manufacturing - to open, for schools to return, and for restaurants and cafes to serve takeaways.
Aucklanders are desperate for the shift.
They have suffered through five lockdowns during the pandemic, enduring 117 days and counting under stay-at-home orders.
But with daily case numbers stuck in double digits and the continued emergence of cases that are infectious in the community, experts aren't sure the government has made the right call.
Academics Michael Plank and Shaun Hendy, COVID-19 modellers who have produced work for the government through the pandemic, say it's a "calculated risk".
"A worrying few continue to test positive before being identified by contract tracers ... we can't be confident that the Delta outbreak is contained until these become few and far between," they write in The Conversation.
"It's absolutely crucial people continue to stick to their bubbles.
"The level of risk has reduced over the past five weeks but the danger has certainly not passed. We all need to resist the temptation to meet up with family or friends."
The professors say new cases are highly likely outside Auckland's lockdown in the Waikato region after a remand prisoner, who subsequently tested positive, was bailed to a Whakatiwai home.
Another respected voice, University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker, told Newsroom another "fairly likely" outcome was an upswing of cases.
"Then it will be a real dilemma about whether to just stick with level three for several months until we've got very high vaccine coverage. To get enough people doubly dosed could take almost till Christmas," he said.
Tuesday's new cases take the total number of infections in this outbreak to 1085.
Of that, 790 have recovered, with 15 in hospital including four in intensive care.
Dr Hendy said Ms Ardern's call must have been informed by health officials with a detailed understanding of case profiles.
"They're probably the folks that are best placed to understand what's happening on the ground. So perhaps not unreasonable to back contact tracing. Let's cheer them on," he said.
"The next couple of weeks are going to be absolutely crucial."
Australian Associated Press
