DOHERTY INSTITUTE MODELLING:
NOW
* Until there are high vaccination rates, the best strategy is to continue with the suppression approach and lock down early and hard when there is an outbreak to limit the duration and costs of lockdowns
AT 70 PER CENT VACCINATION RATE AND ONGOING LOW-LEVEL RESTRICTIONS
* Symptomatic infections (over 180 days) - 390,362 cases if testing, tracing, isolating and quarantine (TTIQ) is only partially effective; 2762 cases if TTIQ is optimal
* Hospital admissions - 13,698 if TTIQ is partially effective; 96 if TTIQ is optimal
* ICU admissions - 2966 if TTIQ is partially effective; 23 if TTIQ is optimal
* Deaths - 1908 if TTIQ is partially effective; 16 if TTIQ is optimal
IN AN UNCONTROLLED OUTBREAK
* With 50 per cent vaccination coverage, there could be 8900 deaths over the first 180 days of the outbreak
* At 60 per cent coverage, the 180-day death figure is 5300
* At 70 per cent coverage, the 180-day death figure is 2000
* At 80 per cent coverage, the 180-day death figure is 1300
(Source: Doherty Institute)
Australian Associated Press
