PFNL 2018: Race to the finals heating up with six games left in the regular season

While all eight teams remain a “mathematical” chance to make the finals, it appears just six of them have a legitimate claim on a spot in the final five, with Waroona looking like they’ll miss their first finals series in more than a decade while Mandurah continue to struggle with results while building towards the future.

That leaves the top spot Baldivis, the reigning premiers Pinjarra, Rockingham, Centrals, South Mandurah and Halls Head.

So which of those sides is finals bound, and which unlucky team misses out? 

Below we take a look at each finals contender’s current record, their run home, and how they might fare.

Current ladder position (record)

First (10-2-0)

Games to come​

Predicted ladder position (record)

First (14-4)

The Brumbies set off on their 2018 campaign eyeing a hot start, and hoping that would carry them through to a top-two finish. So far so good, given they won their first eight games and despite losing two of their previous four remain six premiership points clear atop the ladder. Four wins should be enough for them to head into the finals with a minor premiership, a week off and home advantage. Having said that, I’m tipping them to beat South Mandurah at Falcon Oval, and we all know how that panned out last time around…

Current ladder position (record)

Second (8-3-1)

Games to come

Predicted ladder position (record)

Second (13-4-1)

Last year Pinjarra went 6-0 in their home stretch, rolling into the finals in great form and conjuring a premiership from it. This year they’re threatening to do the same. The Tigers may face the top dogs twice in their final six, but outside of that it’s the easiest run home of any team. I’ve got them going 5-1 over the stretch, beating the Brumbies at home before falling to them on the road, although that could easily go the other way and if it does expect Pinjarra to finish first, because they probably won’t lose any other game.

Current ladder position (record)

Third (8-4-0)

Games to come

Predicted ladder position (record)

Third (13-5-0)

Maybe the most interesting run home of any team, Rockingham only leave their home ground twice, travelling to the same venue both times to take on Halls Head. They also play Centrals twice, who dealt them a loss last time they played. The good news in those games against the Blues is that Rockingham has them at home both times in this stretch, but the bad news is that some of Centrals’ best form has been on the road this year (i.e. when they trampled on Pinjarra in round 11). I can’t split the two sides, so I’m splitting their record instead and giving them a win apiece in these games. Outside of that, I’ve got Rockingham going for wins in every other contest, and finishing just two points behind the Tigers.

Current ladder position (record)

Fourth (7-5-0)

Games to come

Predicted ladder position (record)

Fourth (12-6-0)

The in-form team of the competition has every opportunity to stay that way with their run home. Centrals have won their past four games, including victories over top three teams Rockingham and Pinjarra, while coming within a goal of the top-spot Brumbies. They’ll likely beat Mandurah in their first game back, and playing at home should give them just enough advantage to overcome a South Mandurah side that likes to cause an upset. Their toughest test comes against Baldivis, where they will again have the luxury of being at home, and I’ve got them sneaking away with a win there while splitting the two Rockingham clashes. I’ve based this on the form they were in before the break, and should that continue they should be able to head into the finals feeling relatively good about where they’re at.

Current ladder position (record)

Fifth (6-6-0)

Games to come

Predicted ladder position (record)

Fifth (8-10)

Boy, it doesn’t get much more difficult than the Southies’ run home. Two games against top spot, and their first three will be played against teams that have serious finals claims. However, their most crucial game is going to come against Halls Head in round 16, and I’m penning them into win in front of that crazy crowd of their’s. The good news for the Falcons is Halls Head also have a pretty rough final six games, and a win in that round 16 game should be just enough to scrape into finals, which would be a big green tick on coach Paul Pannell’s first year at South Mandurah given the amount of young players they’ve blooded.

Current ladder position (record)

Sixth (5-6-1)

Games to come

Predicted ladder position (record)

Sixth (7-10-1)

By my calculations Halls Head will more than triple their win total from last season – which is a huge success for the young side – but they get back to the finals just yet. The Lightning have done wonderfully in coach Adam Boone’s first year, but unfortunately their run home isn’t going to be kind. They should (keyword being should) win both of their games against Waroona but outside of that they’re facing a tough Rockingham side twice, South Mandurah at Falcon Oval and the reigning premiers on their turf. I’m tipping them to just miss finals, but should they prove me wrong and win their clash with South Mandurah (or even one of their games at home against the Rams), they have every chance to play in the post-season.