EVEN betting kinky, as in eccentric not sexy, it is difficult to find an attractive gamble about the champion sprinter Black Caviar in today's Orr Stakes at Caulfield.
The winning margin appealed at first as Black Caviar takes on Southern Speed, a group 1-winning mare ready to excel. Alas, the online bookmaker Tom Waterhouse is offering $1.85 about less than 3½ lengths winning margin or $1.95 for more.
Of course, it must be factored in that jockey Luke Nolen could well put the brakes on Black Caviar about the three-length mark.
Waterhouse has also instigated the Rock Marciano bet regarding Black Caviar - $3.50 to finish her career undefeated.
Surely, though, there must be an anticipated dividend to stimulate the punting appetite? Well, Waterhouse is offering odds about the Caulfield attendance today. The favourite way is $2.50 for between 40,000 and 49,999.
''The only possible things that would prevent Black Caviar winning would be injury or being pocketed throughout the race,'' Dom Beirne, for Betfair, said. Kingston Town once was beaten being hemmed in tight at Randwick.
Still, Beirne sees Black Caviar racing two wide ''whether that is in second, third or fourth position''.
Danzylum is visualised as the leader with Doubtful Jack second and Black Caviar stalking in clear territory. Under weight-for-age, the 1400 metres for the first time won't be a concern. Consider her 130 rating with Racing Victoria compared with Southern Speed's 112.
No doubt Southern Speed, which likes Caulfield and humped 60 kilograms to victory resuming over the circuit on January 26, will make a strong surge at the finish under the tactical expertise of Craig Williams. But it is difficult to imagine her matching the finishing section of Black Caviar. Beirne has Southern Speed at $1.40 to run second, thus suggests the spread of trifectas for the minor position. With Black Caviar and Southern Speed the exacta, Playing God (six units), Danzylum, (two units), Doubtful Jack (three units) and one unit of Efficient, Precedence and Illo is his way to go.
Playing God, from WA, has a dash of class and first-up speed with a form line of two wins and a second from three campaigns.
Verdict: Black Caviar, Southern Speed, Playing God trifecta. EACH-WAY VALUE
Certainly Samaready has created plenty of betting activity in the Blue Diamond Prelude for fillies. ''This has been a massive go. $9 into $3.80, she's been off the map,'' Shaun Anderson (Sportsbet) reported on the Racenet poll of leading betting houses. However, Samaready takes on a highly promising field, including stablemate Malasun, also prepared by Mick Price. Malasun launches from two compared with Samaready's 10. Formidable backs up after an eye-catching, half-length second to Mama's Choice over the Caulfield 1100m last Saturday. ''Slow out, caught four wide, no cover outside lead straightening, hit on face with whip … '' Winning Post reported.
Verdict: Formidable ($8). QUEEN TO RULE
Bookmakers are keen to take on Karuta Queen in the Rubiton Stakes. ''Meeting a versatile and good sprint field here and switching straight to Melbourne after missing first-up run at Warwick Farm means she must be a risk at the short price,'' Neil Evans (Centrebet) reckoned. Karuta Queen, a three-year-old, has won six out 12 and is a brilliant sprinter with more depth to her form than First Command, one of the dangers. Decircles, though, could be a problem, considering his second to First Command recently when returning from a spell. The colt has only had five runs and is on an upward spiral.
Verdict: Karuta Queen ($2.25). GET THE LOVE
Apart from the dashing Rain Affair in the Expressway Stakes, two-year-olds, particularly You Got The Love in the Sydney Carnival, add plenty of interest at Rosehill. You Got The Love was only fourth at Gosford on January 25 but was wayward in the barriers, returning to the enclosure bleeding from both nostrils. The colt was scoped and the injury was put down to him hitting his head on the stalls, so under the circumstances it was a worthwhile performance. Other chances for this race, over 1200m, include Clever Boy, Arrasene, with the benefit of blinkers, and Incrimination.
Verdict: You Got The Love ($6). SIDETRACKED
Stewards are tipping an improved effort from Aeronautical in the Sharp Handicap. Aeronautical was seventh to Magic Weekend over the Rosehill 1100m on January 21. ''Forget the run,'' chief stipe Ray Murrihy warned, pointing out difficulties the three-year-old had in running. Detours, a filly with Peter Snowden, had reasonable Sydney form before going to Melbourne in the spring and is back from a break, a situation where she has scored twice previously.
Verdict: Detours ($3.40).