PFNL: Home finals up for grabs in final two rounds

But in what has been a tight tussle at the top all season long, it’s no surprise that home finals and a week off are still completely up for grabs in the final two rounds.

Pinjarra and Centrals are tied at the top with 12-4 records, but the Tigers’ massive percentage advantage has them in first.

Baldivis is just one game behind in third place, the Falcons are only a shade off with 10 wins in fourth, and Waroona’s strong second half to the year has them still a slight chance to win a home final as they sit in fifth with 9 wins.

The heat is well and truly on for teams to grab home finals, so it’s only apt that we take out the crystal ball and have a look ahead at how things might end up.

Round 17

Round 18

1. Pinjarra (14-4)

No arguments here, right? By no means are the Tigers unbeatable, but they look certain to finish in first. Their run home is the easiest of any club, and they hold a massive percentage advantage. Barring a miracle upset, they’ll have a week off to start the post-season, but when finals roll around they’ll be facing opposition keen to knock off the top-seeded team.

2. Centrals (13-5)

Here’s where things get interesting. Centrals have the hardest run home with games against Waroona and Baldivis. I’ve got them going 1-1 over that stretch, with a win against Waroona this week and a loss to the Brumbies in the final round. That could easily change going either way, but I’m sitting on the fence for now. Essentially, their game against Baldivis in round 18 will be played for a home final, but since Centrals hold a 10 percent buffer, we’ll stick with them for second.

3. Baldivis (13-5)

There are a couple of ways the Brumbies could get to second spot. The simple way is that Centrals lose both of their final two games and Baldivis win their’s, but the Brumbies still have a chance even if Centrals win against Waroona this weekend. In a nut shell, Baldivis need to absolutely destroy Halls Head (we’re talking three-figure margin) and then notch a handy victory over Centrals. It’s certainly possible for the Brumbies to finish second, but to overcome 10 per cent in a league that is so close looms as a massive challenge, so I’ve got them in third for now.

4. South Mandurah (11-7)

Much like second spot is in reach for Baldivis, third is definitely in reach for South Mandurah. The Falcons have an ace up their sleeve with a massive percentage advantage over the Brumbies, and if they can win both of their final two games they would just need Baldivis to lose to Centrals and they would finish third. But since I couldn’t decide who wins in round 18 out of Souths and Waroona, I reverted to their last clash which saw the Demons get up by four goals. I’ve got in fourth, but the Falcons could go either way and will be desperate to finish third and earn that second chance.

5. Waroona (10-8)

It’s a tough final two weeks for the Demons with Centrals and South Mandurah on the cards, but they’ve been in pretty good lately and have a genuine shot at winning two of two. Their forward line can be creative, they have some influential midfielders and their defence is sturdy, but is it enough to nab fourth and a home final? Given South Mandurah should topple the Mustangs in round 17, probably not. Their percentage, while strong at 126, doesn’t stack up with the Falcons’ so fifth is the likely choice. But hey, the Demons are probably just fine with being underdogs.