Taking the measure of a sitting Prime Minister just before an election is usually an easy job.
They usually have at least three years of public performance (and under-performance) under their belts, a string of budgets, and we see their mettle tested in the tough world of foreign affairs.
Not Malcolm Turnbull.
The trouble he faces over the campaign is that we have precious little with which to judge him.
In many ways the electorate are viewing him as a prospect rather than a performer in office, and making judgments about him as though he was an opposition leader seeking the job for the first time.
Since taking the job of Prime Minister from Tony Abbott he has in many ways behaved like an opposition leader with time to burn.
But as Prime Minister, he has had no such luxury and he has paid for the time he has spent finding his feet in the job; for example, he is still pulling splinters from his backside after spending so long sitting on the GST fence before deciding which side he was on.
Then, with a flair reminding many of Kevin Rudd’s more erratic announcements, he woke up a few days before meeting the nation’s Premiers and decided to reform the Australian federation.
If he couldn’t increase the GST, he would make the states haul in income tax to pay for the shortfall in their unaffordable spending.
He either lost his political mind for a few months or – more likely – the structural challenges to the budget are more serious than he is now letting on.
But the public and the Premiers were live to the ruse; the people don’t want to pay more tax and state governments don’t want to wear the political heat for collecting it.
For Prime Minister Turnbull, all this spelled a serious hit to his lead over Labor’s Bill Shorten.
At first people were very happy in the knowledge Malcolm Turnbull wasn’t Tony Abbott.
But then they didn’t know who he was.
Conversely, Bill Shorten’s problem is they know exactly who he is; Labor’s faceless man thrust into the spotlight to become the lowest common denominator in the Rudd-Gillard governments.
He has a tough job convincing voters he supports anything other than himself.
But the Prime Minister’s hurdle is more complex and he is running out of time to prove he has a plan we can believe in.